[This Iran war post was essentially complete at launch time, but I do want to add an important footnote after I go out for personal maintenance. I will add that and any updates by 8:30 AM EDT]
Needless to say, with Trump having sought to turn the spotlight away from Iran in the runup to the long US holiday weekend, news coverage has slacked off a bit. The US has sent another proposal to Iran which Iran is studying. This tweet importantly depicts Iran as willing to make significant concession on nuclear enrichment:
🗞️ Latest on U.S.-Iran Negotiations:
1. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said today that negotiations between Tehran and Washington are continuing “through Pakistani mediators,” in remarks carried by IRNA.
➤ “Basically, what we want is not a demand but our… pic.twitter.com/ACjSSZd6Zj— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 20, 2026
From the detail:
3. Drop Site News’ Jeremy Scahill revealed on Tuesday details from his latest conversations with Iranian officials about what Tehran may be prepared to offer in a broader settlement:
🔹officials indicated they could agree not to clear rubble from the three main enrichment facilities bombed during the U.S.-Israeli war,
🔹potentially suspend uranium enrichment for a limited period,
🔹and eventually transfer enriched uranium to Russia or China in exchange for yellowcake for civilian nuclear use➤ Iranian officials insist any agreement must first address an end to the war, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, sanctions relief, and the repatriation of frozen Iranian assets, Scahill noted.
However, this is dead on arrival. The US will not accept sequencing, which they like to depict as Iran foot-dragging and bad faithe, even though many have pointed out the JCPOA negotiations showed it takes years to complete complex nuclear agreements.
And that is before getting to other elephants in the room, like the US being negotiation and agreement incapable.
Trump and Netanyahu had an argument over Trump pausing his attack plans. Breaking Points has a good recap:
From a lightly-edited machine transcript: starting at 3:30
Ryan Grim: So, let’s start with President Donald Trump. So according to Amit Segal of Channel 12 News in Israel, Trump and Israel over the last several hours apparently had a quote uh what lengthy and dramatic call. We can put up A 0 [image of tweet appears] and so again so this is coming from Amit Segal. Trump and Netanyahu held a phone conversation last night that was described as quote lengthy and dramatic unquote. Recently, Segal goes on become clear that Netanyahu believes less in the chances of reaching an agreement. That is shocking to me. And he wants a strike. Wow. Netanyahu really breaking with his past demands here.
“While Trump wants to turn over every stone to reach an agreement.” Oh, I’m sure he absolutely does. Okay.
So, Amit Segal, for those following this, uh, this program closely know that, he’s very close to Netanyahu, almost kind of a a spokesperson of sorts, though he’s an Israeli journalist.So that that is the kind of Netanyahu version of this of this call. Um, we can put up A1 before I think we get into this.
Trump recently had said o on Monday, he had said that he was going to attack Iran on Tuesday. But then I think he quickly realized that if he didn’t back off of that quickly, he would have to back off of it on Tuesday and that would mean another TACO Tuesday, which is embarrassing, more embarrassing than a TACO Monday. We put up A1 here. Uh, so he has responded by saying that they have actually, OK then now they have two or three days. We can roll this here
Trump in video clip:
Well, I I mean I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something maybe early next week. A limited period of time, because we can’t let them have a nuclear weapon. If if they had a nuclear weapon, they would start with Israel. They would blow it up and they would blow it up fast, but they’d blow it up. And I’ll tell you what, they’d go after Saudi Arabia. They’d go after Kuwait. They go after UAE. They go after Qatar. They go after I think they go after the entire Middle East. And it would be a whole different negotiation. It would not be It would be, it would be nuclear holocaust. And there’s no question in my mind that they’d use it. There’s no question. AND I DEAL with these people.
They’re extremely radicalized.
These are not people like when I deal with you.
Emily: ….I actually think part of what Trump is doing is is he knows that it’s bad for him to go back into a hot conflict. He knows that it’s bad politics and he is procrastinating. He’s trying, maybe he doesn’t think of it as procrastinating, but he is trying to do absolutely everything that he can within uh the sort of parameters set for a man who is a staunch ally of Netanyahu to just he sees the delay, let me put it this way, he sees the delay as being better than going into action and he’s maybe just hoping something pops. But there’s really nothing because of the impasse over the straight of Hormuz and his nuclear enrichment. There’s really nothing that he can do. So he’s just frozen in time right now. And it it just feels like inevitable because nobody’s budging. Nobody has any reason to budge.
Ryan: Basically, we do seem to be stuck in this really kind of brutal um it’s not even an escalation trap at this point. It’s just kind of a trap.
There is one huge contrary factoid in this mess. Trump has pushed the window for action by only a very few days. He has pounded on this point. He has not set expectations that if there is progress, negotiators would meet to hammer out a text. That would easily allow him to temporize a few more weeks.
The Aljazeera live feed provides of confirmation that the US is still in fire-breathing mode:
Trump official warns Iran of unprecedented military action over deal holdout
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller has issued a stark warning to the Iranian leadership regarding the ongoing standoff as negotiations have failed to progress.Speaking to Fox News, Miller said that the current administration in Tehran faces a critical ultimatum from the US.
“This new team in Iran has a choice to make,” Miller said.
“They can either agree to a piece of paper that is satisfactory to the United States, or they can face a punishment from our military, the likes of which has not been seen in modern history. That’s the choice that they face,” he said.
Now perhaps Trump again plans to shift blame next week to the Saudis, the Kuwaitis and the UAE, which he had depicted as petitioning him for negotiations. Larry Johnson argues that the Saudis control what might happen, in his recent posts, Trump Wants to Attack Iran, But Does Saudi Arabia Hold the Keys? and A Religious Reason the Saudis Are Blocking a New Attack on Iran.
The Saudis have even more reason to be concerned, since not only is the Bab el-Madib straight vulnerable, but it may be turning into a hot spot:
And the costs incurred across the Gulf are not trivial:
Military expert readers are encouraged to correct me, but other scenarios seem possible.
Some of the things Larry Wilkerson has said (and recall he was a military officer, teaches military officer, has extensive experience in the region and presumably more contacts) call into question some of Johnson’s arguments. Wilkerson said the Saudis have already lodged a protest over the use of their bases and airspace before the latest Gulf-State-blaming TACO. Wilkerson additionally said that would not be sufficient to deter the US, that the Saudis would need to threat to physically prevent the use of the airbases.
If you read the Johnson pieces, you will see he assumes air strikes as being the main, probably the sole, component. He also assumes the US would need to use Saudi bases and/or airspace to execute that sort of attack,
A key question is whether the US could execute a mission only using Saudi airspace and not the bases. Pray tell, how would the Saudis stop the US from overflying Saudi Arabia? Are they about to scramble jets? The US could easily operate on “Ask for forgiveness, not permission” mode.
A second question is whether Saudi indulgence is necessary. Could the US execute a Special Forces operation from the UAE? Recall the US was reported as asking the UAE to take that on, specifically to take Lavan Island. The Emiratis allegedly refused. Could that have been a big ruse to take the focus off the UAE as the main staging ground for an Special Forces-heavy operation (recall that even though the Iraq government is friendly to Iran, it does not control the full country, so Iraq-based assets could also play a role)
Recall the Iranians flew F-15s under the radar to hit Kuwait and successfully run away, so it would in theory be possible to provide some air support from the UAE.
The specific reason for wondering if the UAE is part of a deception operation is it absolutely did not belong on the list that Trump provided in his Truth Social post and kept repeating, of counties pressing him to negotiate, not attack. Others noticed the disparity:
Trump lumping the UAE together with Saudi & Qatar is an oversimplification & a pretext to backdown from unattractive military options.
Saudi, coordinating closely with Pakistan, wants to midwife a diplomatic off-ramp. The risks on another round out-way the benefits for them.… pic.twitter.com/Bh9R9vzSr2
— Firas Maksad (@FirasMaksad) May 19, 2026
And:
UAE are Israels trajan horse
Actively genociding sudanese and dividing somalia into multiple countries— H (@H26339022) May 20, 2026
The UAE has lashed itself to the Israel mast. It has remained extremely hostile to Iran in the face of continued Iran attacks. It does not seem plausible that an attack from the west that did minor damage (but near) a nuclear site would produce a Damascene conversion. Russia has been party to far more sustained attacks on the Zaporzhizhia nuclear plant and has not turned tail.
In addition, the US still has a ton of Special Forces in theater. This is an awful lot of camouflage if the plan now is simply air strikes.
Larry Wilkerson also said last week that his contacts told him the US was still planning a ground, as in Special Forces, operation to take the enriched uranium. That is completely nuts. But what if Trump plans something performative, like his famed “obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear sites last summer? Admittedly he had Iran’s cooperation then. But what if the US actually were able to get in and take a teeny amount from one site and declare they had greatly harmed Iran? Do not forget that Trump (as Tom Stone and others regularly point out) has lost his mind (to white matter disease) and desperately needs a face-saver.
Oil dropped markedly yesterday and many readers thought that was the result of Trump negotiation pom-pom waving. However, the Financial Times, in a then-lead story, explicitly attributed the easing to some full oil tankers leaving the Gulf:
Two supertankers carrying Iraqi oil to China passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, raising hopes of a partial opening of the vital chokepoint for Middle Eastern energy and sending crude prices tumbling.
Shipping data showed the two ships traversing the strategic waterway. A third supertanker transporting Kuwaiti oil to South Korea was also shown to be in the strait before its transponder was switched off.
Collectively, the three ships are carrying 6mn barrels of oil, potentially the largest volume to exit the Gulf in a single day since the US and Israel started the conflict with Iran at the end of February.
The supertankers steered through the northern side of the strait, following a route designated by Iran. “It is most likely that there was a deal done with Iran,” said Matthew Wright, lead shipping analyst at data company Kpler.
Analysts at shipping data company Windward said the passage of the ships, two days after Iran launched a new agency to administer permits and charge tolls, suggested the strait “is no longer a closed corridor but a contested and tiered-access environment”, shaped by US and Iranian enforcement.
To boost the credibility of its new agency, Tehran also on Wednesday said 26 vessels had passed through the strait over the previous 24 hours, although it was not possible to verify the claim using ship-tracking data.1
Note that the market happy dance took place against a backdrop of deteriorating fundamentals. From NO1:
Oil market structure: the slow-motion tank-bottom crisis
- US refineries ran at 91.7% capacity, yet commercial crude inventories still drained 4.3M barrels; gasoline stocks fell 4.1M barrels and sit 5% below the five-year average
- Record 5.6 million barrels exported last week — 2nd highest ever. The US is exporting its way to empty
- Oil futures volatility remains elevated and has not declined in a month — per JustDario, “the whole oil market is a giant pressure cooker”
- US jet fuel output yield at record 12.7% per Kobeissi, up 2.2pp since the Iran war began — refiners producing ~250K extra barrels/day of jet fuel to compensate for Hormuz closure cutting off ~400K barrels/day
- ADNOC CEO: Hormuz shutdown is “most severe supply disruption on record”. New UAE oil pipeline almost 50% complete
- Trump jawboning oil price lower with “final stages” talk; JustDario calls it fake news delivery, notes no demand destruction at ~$100/barrel per EIA
However, it is still significant that three supertankers went through, two with Iraqi crude going to China, one with Kuwait crude to South Korea, all through the tollbooth.
Iraq is on Iran’s side (even if the government does not fully control the country) and the US is unlikely to mess with China bound carriers, at least for a wee bit, since Xi agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets after all. For once, Trump did not lie!
The US will not hinder a carrier from Kuwait going to South Korea, even if (as with the other 2 supertankers) the formal rule is the Navy is to stop any ship using the Persian Gulf Authority channel.
But a key point on the Iran side is ZOMG Kuwait. Kuwait was an enemy and Iran was not letting enemy ships pass. Does this mean Kuwait and Iran have reached a modus vivendi?
The US has had some success in barking and getting ships to turn around. The last tally I saw from TankerTrackers showed the ratio is >5 for every capture.
The US saved its manhood a teeny bit by seizing an Iran ship in the Sea of Oman just now, as in beyond the Strait:
CENTCOM says US forces boarded, redirected Iranian-flagged tanker in Gulf of Oman
US Central Command (CENTCOM) says US Marines boarded an Iranian-flagged commercial oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman that was suspected of trying to break the Trump administration’s blockade on Iran’s ports.“American forces released the vessel after searching and directing the ship’s crew to alter course,” CENTCOM said in a statement.
There was no immediate comment from the Iranian authorities on the incident.
CENTCOM added in its statement that the US military has “redirected” 91 commercial ships since the blockade was put in place.
Lloyd’s List in US boards and releases Iranian tanker as PGSA outlines Hormuz boundaries said Marines inspected a “product tanker” Celestial Sea before letting it proceed on its merry way.
And the US has intercepted other vessels:
US forces seized the falsely-flagged Ghost Fleet tanker SKYWAVE (9328716) in Indian Ocean, between Indonesia & Sri Lanka.
It was sailing from the Malaysian EOPL back toward Iran.
SKYWAVE was blacklisted by @UANI in 2023 and added the the #GhostArmada List. It was… https://t.co/eawg5EAmf4 pic.twitter.com/9brkDJ90nI
— Charlie B (@supbrow) May 19, 2026
The wee issue here, as we have said repeatedly, is many ship operators are correctly risk averse.2 Early in the war, both Bloomberg and Lloyd’s List ran stories of what would be necessary for carriers to feel comfortable taking cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz. The majority said they would need the war to be over AND to have escorts (as in they still felt exposed to rogue element attacks from the short) or for there to have been a period of safe transits. Recall that Jeff Currie said that even though the hot action by Ansar Allah in the Red Sea was over two years ago, traffic levels on those routes are at 75% of the earlier level.
So any level of shooting in or around the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a generally lame US blockade, will still lower traffic levels.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/20/iran-war-live-tehran-warns-of-many-more-surprises-if-conflict-resumes
And on the economic front, experts expect bond yields to keep rising and in time pull down stocks.
This bond maven argues that bonds, just like stocks, are subject to “buy the dip” behavior by yield-hungry investors, but the direction of travel is for higher interest rates:
This second segment argues a stock selloff is likely as bond yields rise. Note as we have pointed out that uncertainty is also a dampener to investor optimism:
NO1 catalogued how US some consumers are cracking under the weight of their borrowings. From his daily update yesterday:
Consumer debt reaching crisis levels
- Credit card serious delinquencies at 13.1%, highest since Q4 2010, with the +5.5pp surge since Q3 2022 exceeding the 2007-2010 Financial Crisis increase
- Auto loan delinquencies at 5.6%, record high
- Student loan 90+ delinquencies at 10.3%
- 40% of Americans earning $300K+ living paycheck to paycheck per Goldman
- Mortgage rates hit 6.75%, highest since July 2025. Housing affordability at all-time low
- Market now pricing 37% odds of Fed hiking in 2026; rate hike by January above 55%
Food is another flash point:
Food is set to become even more expensive:
World fertilizer prices have surged +44% since the start of the Iran War, to the highest since 2022.
This comes as ~33% of globally traded fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.
This includes… pic.twitter.com/cg9Kbf6eAT
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 20, 2026
Done for today! You may get only a short or no update tomorrow if there is little new news. And if you are in the US or UK, enjoy the long weekend!
____
1 Some tweets claim they verified the Iran claim:
Navigation data shows 26 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours after coordinating with Iran, consistent with the IRGC's statement that the Strait is open under Iranian control.
26 ships in 24 hours is still far below pre-war traffic (~3,000… pic.twitter.com/hy3Kdhp0YG
— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) May 20, 2026
But this is an informationally polluted environment:
Deceptive patterns spread as cargo vessels adopt the tanker playbook.
Yesterday’s imagery from the Basrah Oil Terminal reveals a growing trend in location manipulation to bypass regional blockades.
– 9 vessels were detected spoofing their positions in the Basrah waiting area
-… pic.twitter.com/ewKK9qXUtq— Windward (@WindwardAI) May 20, 2026
And Hormuz Letter argues this may be a sign of an imminent attack:
BREAKING: Massive AIS spoofing activity is occurring in the Persian Gulf northwest of Dubai right now, with hundreds of ships transmitting false positions in the same coordinates. The same spoofing is happening simultaneously with aircraft transponders in the same location, per… pic.twitter.com/zisTzP4Zrc
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 21, 2026
2 They no doubt also appreciate that insurance contacts amount to an option to sue the insurer to try to get them to honor them.
Iran signaling concessions indicates that they perceive US/Israel attacks as imminent, so they want to show that they are the flexible party seeking compromise, just like they did before the first attack.
Anyway, football (soccer) fans might remember the famous match between Iran (Home) and the US (visitors). Iran was leading 3-0 at half-time. The US requested the match be postponed since they were getting their butts handed to them and the Iranian manager (coach) agreed. Explaining his decision in an interview after the game, the manager explained: “But you see, our boys get to rest and prepare as well”.
I guess we will see the outcome soon enough.
Gasoline prices here have been fluctuating up and down around the $4 mark. Other sites have suggested a big drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is taking place as part of Trump’s deny the inevitable campaign. Of course Biden did his own manipulation of the SPR for political purposes.
We heartlanders wonder just how bad that pump price is going to get.
US Dept of Energy EIA weekly Petroleum Balance Sheet, for week ending May 15 2026
US” Crude oil stocks reduced by -17.8 million barrels US end balance 819.2 million barrels. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is 374 million barrels.
US crude oil stocks depleting rapidly!
My wife here in Thailand said she felt that her car was getting less mileage lately, as if they were not selling the regular mix. She has a hybrid that sips gas as it is, so it must be a significant difference to be noticed. As they compared notes, everyone at the office all volunteered they had the same suspicion lately.
It could be cut with more ethanol … better be careful, as too much can damage engines.
They sell E-15 here in the US, but only certain vehicles are set up to use it.
My 2017 car shows the current mileage on the instrument cluster and this is presumably accurate since the computer controlled engine is delivering fuel via software control.
So in this country at least any funny business with the gasoline would immediately be noticed (and hasn’t been by me).
I had this thought too. I don’t have a hybrid, but don’t drive a gas-guzzler and last weekend, it seemed like every trip, no matter how short, took up a quarter of the tank.
But I’ve heard that gas mileage drops in cars as they age too, and mine is ~6 years old now
I wouldn’t be surprised. I fully believe that fuel mixes make a difference. I regularly buy gas at my local Sam’s Club, and it seems like when I have to fill up somewhere else, my car doesn’t get as good of mileage as it does with Sam’s gas.
The filthy lying POTUS who lies, lies, lies strikes again. No deal, crude going back up.
$4.53 today in my ‘hood
highest yet
last week $4.20
$6.30 in Santa Rosa yesterday, cash price for regular.
Everything now over five now here in the desert. Low of $5.06 out on the highway to a high of $5.30 here in town. The AAA site shows gas going up about a penny a day.
Here in butler county pa., where a bullet(?) allegedly talked off a very small piece of the indispensable man’s beautiful right ear, the one he now uses to disregard any questions about his beautiful role as lead pediophile in the Epstein Class, it’s $4.86.
Maybe not every word, but at least 80% of the words coming out of the mouths of Trump and Netanyahu are lies, so I would guess everything the media stenographers have regurgitated about their “tense” phone call is a bunch of hooey. Probably they just did a last minute priority check of which schools and hospitals will be bombed in Iran next and had a good laugh about how many children and elderly people would be killed.
What’s equally troubling to me is all these experts who proclaim, “What Trump wants is…” I stop listening.
I mean, WTF do they know? Extricate himself? Ha! Negotiate something? Ha! After the Ukraine experience, all we know is that nothing has been resolved. Eternal destruction and mayhem? Nihilism on steroids? Continual turmoil and chaos. Is that what he wants?
IMO what Trump wants is total capitulation. Bibi wants total humiliation and prostration. But what do I know?
While I come here for and appreciate a reasoned, thoughtful analysis, there is also value in just expressing outrage.
He is a filthy lying POTUS who lies lies lies.
I realize that rants generally aren’t the best look, but honestly it’s all I have today. Seeing Massie lose didn’t help.
‘A third supertanker transporting Kuwaiti oil to South Korea was also shown to be in the strait before its transponder was switched off.’
Probably the Trump regime told the US Navy let this one through after the South Koreans explained to them that without oil, that maybe they won’t be able to manufacture and ship them that many AI chips anymore. That would have served to concentrate minds – even tiny minds.
Iranian F-5s not F-15s struck Kuwaiti targets
That’s the funniest part, actually. There’s something humiliating about being slapped around with 60yr old aircraft that we built and sold to them.
It would have been bonus points if it had been an old Grumman F-14 Tomcat fighter jet. What’s the Persian word for ‘Maverick’ again?
Interestingly, ‘Maverick’ is a uniquely American word for which there would be no cultural equivalent in other languages. It has its origin in the realm of 19th century American cattle culture. I believe it originally meant an unbranded cow. It has come to mean a renegade but its connotations are more important. wild west culture, a fictional fighter pilot, etc.
I wonder how the call sign of the Tom Cruise character was rendered in other languages.
That would be Samuel Maverick, whose herds increased bigly as each of his cows produced 3 or 4 offspring…
The F-15 is no spring chicken either and first delivered to USAF in 1974. This is a very detailed and somewhat interesting backgrounder.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_F-15_Eagle
As a sidebar there’s an Imax movie showing the F-15 in action.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fighter_Pilot:_Operation_Red_Flag
I’ve seen it and it may be watchable here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4nZ4Dri59U
The above Wiki says the plane’s twin engines achieve a 1:1 thrust to weight ratio and when the pilot in the film takes off he finishes by going straight up.
However needless to say the Air Force version of Top Gun with its Russkie-baiting “Red Flag” name is out of date just like the plane itself–although supposedly it still goes on.
Not what an Iranian propaganda video of the event said that was featured in Janta Ka. Specifically said they were F-15s and old but fast. Presumably from the days of the Shah. I can listen again, but I see that Iran bought F-14s, the Tomcat.
That is not possible: F5s were widely exported; F15s were not. In fact, until recently, only a handful of countries had them: Israel, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, aside from US (Shah’s Iran would have been one of them, but they chose F14 instead). More recently, as F15 was no longer that “fancy,” more countries got them, but still close US allies, like South Korea and Singapore. It has to be an error.
Keep in mind I mainly listen to podcasts, as oppose to watch them. I managed to find the AI dramatization on a search, and it did say F-5s, so my bad. “Five” does not sound much like “fifteen” so I did not think I had heard something so different. But later the video mentions the F-15s sent in pursuit by the US, so I conflated them.
It does show, contrary to the MSM report SafetyFirst provided, two Iranian jets, not one, so use of the plural was faithful to the Iran source.
But this is why I hate podcasts! I am much less prone to inaccurate recall with print, and that is before getting to the fact that speakers in podcasts often get facts wrong or oversimplify to the point of being wrong.
The video also indirectly explained the friendly fire incident. The US would target the planes it saw what it believed to be in front, hightailing it to Iran after the base attack. The Iran jets were presumably flying under the radar on their way back. So the planes that would appear to be in the lead would be the US aircraft.
Here’s a short news story that will interest you. The F-16 made its maiden voyage in December of 1976, flying out of Carswell AFB in Fort Worth, Texas. Guess who was on hand for that very first test flight? Officials from the Iranian Air Force. Iran had committed to purchasing 160 F-16s, but they were not delivered before the Revolution.
This is one of the things that bugs me the most about the vilification of the Iranians. They used to be our allies! And sure, that was under the regime of the US’s hand-picked authoritarian dictator. But the Iranians themselves were viewed as our friends. I was living in Lubbock, Texas, in the 70’s, and I remember the substantial number of Iranian engineering students at Texas Tech. Too, the Shah’s son (the same guy who is trying to horn himself back in) attended pilot training at Lubbock’s Reese Air Force Base.
As to Saudi Arabia not playing ball they have a full squadron of Chinese fighter jets and Pakistan pilots and lots of support people. I wouldn’t think they there to bomb Iran.
It appears to be true but doesn’t seem to be talked about much. Nevertheless it’s all a confusing mess with Trump.
The jets that Iran flew to bomb Saudi are F-5, not f-15’s.
Do you have a source on China having a fighter jet squadron in Saudi Arabia? I read that there is a Chinese HQ-9 air defense system in that country and even that would make Pentagon types grind their teeth.
I think what was suggested was a squadron of the Pakistani air force with Chinese kit
I think that you are right and I misread what he was saying. Apologies to MicaT.
The Pakistanis in Saudi Arabia as part of a security agreement between those two countries could be a real wild card. One acronym I haven’t heard mentioned much in recent years is the ISI – Pakistan’s intelligence service. Maybe things have changed in recent years, but the talk used to be that they were extremely powerful in Pakistan and more or less an entity unto themselves that did not necessarily follow the dictats of whatever civilian or military leadership might head the country at any given time.
Will they have something to say if things get really hot, and whose side will they come down on? The US may have bought off Pakistani leadership to an extent in recent years, but have they penetrated the ISI too?
ISI always played both sides. Of course there are CIA assets, presumably a lot of them, in ISI, but whether they actually work for CIA seems to be a different question.
“And on the economic front, experts expect bond prices to keep rising and in time pull down stocks.”
I think you mean “bond prices to keep falling”.
What makes one an expert? Do you post a prediction track record somewhere?
Sorry, yes, I initially wrote yields as opposed to price and then did not fix the rest.
I make too many “editing on the fly” errors like that.
In my opinion one goal of the groud forces could be to deter the Houtis from acting. They could use them with more efficence then against Iran proper if the Houtis close the Bab al-Mandab. What is you opinion on it?
“Recall the Iranians flew F-15s under the radar to hit Kuwait and successfully run away…”
I don’t recall F-15’s being used… but I just may be ignorant of the fact…
I do, however, recall Iran using an old US F-5, from the 60’s, an export aircraft, successfully bombing a modern US base early in the war, evading all that state-of-the-art air defense, and returning to Iran.
The pilot must’ve thought it was a suicide mission when he got into the cockpit.
That was described long-form in an Iranian AI simulation/propaganda piece of the event after the fact. The narrator said they were old but fast.
I read a review of the F5 Iranian attack which explained the tactic was to go in low and slow which didn’t tip the air defense radar another example of the Iranians using that foresight and planning
“40% of Americans earning $300K+ living paycheck to paycheck per Goldman”
That’s nearly $6000 a week. Can this be true?
A home in a “good middle class” area in the US can often be 2-3 million dollars even in second tier cities on the East and West coasts. Which will put mortgages in the ~15k-20k range. Often people in that cohort are paying for child care ~3500k/month per kid, and private schools run the same. So if you bought a home recently and have any kids I find this a very believable number.
Also, one could have 100s of thousands of school tuition debt to make that money. I know of doctors that got close to a million in debt for their tuitions for medical school, and health care premiums for a family can easily run you 3000k a month if you don’t have work subsidize it.
Also, lots in this cohort also contribute to 401k accounts for retirement. This subtracts money available in their paychecks even while they are not “spending” the money.
Also throw in a car payment or two for a “nice car” and your at $1500 for that, and if your carrying any credit card debt with 20-30% interest you very easily can send that amount of money before you get to food. This is often the cohort that is “eating out” as they don’t have time to cook, which will run you $100 to $150 a day for a family.
Also, it’s popular to do private sports clubs. You can easily spend $5k a month on ice hockey for 1 kid for example. Which still significant for other sports as they are “travel” teams and you go stay in hotels for tournaments in the surrounding states because you want your kids to be good enough to get a scholarship to avoid high college costs.
So expenses incurred in other countries will stack up quick in America particularly with children.
The Goldman report is online at am.gs.com.
am-retirement-survey-10202025.pdf
The 40% number comes from page 20, and has that paycheck to paycheck living is 16% in the 200k to 300k band but 41% in the 300k to 500k group and 40% in the 500k+ group, suggested due to “lifestyle creep”.
This seems odd that this is the case, when earning more money makes one less comfortable and below 300k makes one more comfortable.
The 200k to 300k band is the sweet spot.
The report is dated Oct 2025, so not current with world events.
The results may fit a high income correlates to high cost area, while the 200k to 300k band may be largely residing in lower cost areas.
(Sarcasm on) Otherwise, pay cuts for those earning over 300k, and pay raises for those under 200k, to bring them into the 200k to 300k band, seem to be indicated. Corporate benefit managers should take note.
After taxes, health insurance, social security you’re left with only about 200k. Add in a hefty mortgage on home & car and a fairly active lifestyle I can easily see being left with nothing at EOM.
As an aside, doesn’t social security cut off at 125,000?
And wouldn’t social security be more solvent if those with higher wages had to contribute the same as lower wage earners? And don’t those higher wage earners tend to live longer, getting more for less?
If you’re strapped yet making 300,000 you need some financial counselling.
Tax the Rich.
So if you’re making 300K, you escape Social Security, but you’re still paying the Medicare+surtax on every dollar. And any investments get hit with the NIIT tax.
Nonetheless, bagging 12-14k in after tax income every single month is kind of a ton of money.
Thanks, and I should add that I recently came up with 500 million in assets to put oneself into the “rich” category, 300 g in any big city and you’re minding your budget. The scale got exploded.
If Trump is beholden to Netanyahu on account of blackmail with regard to what is contained in the Epstein files, would Trump actually lose were he to call Bibi’s bluff? Any incriminating evidence released by Israel would simply confirm the blackmail allegations, and likely further diminish support for the zionist entity among the American public. Blackmail the blackmailer in other words. Sure Trump would be outed as whatever it is he is still seeking to conceal, but maybe time to turn the tables completely and show how evil Bibi et al are, not only in war crimes, but everything Epstein recorded in obtaining his blackmailing material. If Trump is to go down, taking everyone with him would give him some form of schadenfreude satisfaction.
The Trump quote on the files that was the most revealing was when he said iirc “there are a lot of people who would be hurt” by releasing them. I think the key to the blackmail is that the criminal acts include a range of important people from all over the upper classes and their support structure that he feels are important to protect from ruin because they could also take him down with them. And of course Israel would become haram for a very long time and for Republicans as well as Libs.
I don’t doubt that Trump and his gang have much in their sordid pasts which they would rather keep hidden. But I doubt that kompromat and blackmail are that much of a threat in the age of AI.
Compromising photos? AI fakes. Incriminating documents? Forgeries. Videos? AI fakes. Audio? Ditto. Witnesses? Lying.
Anything that comes out, Trump will respond to by shouting ‘FAKE NEWS!”
And his supporters, who have continued to support him despite charges of rape, sexual assault and all the rest, would believe him, and continue to support him.
All done but no footnote update. This is why I hate podcasts. I searched the transcripts of 5 (the talk was ~1 month ago) and not able to find it. Similarly, we have an argument above based on what an Iran propaganda video said as part of a Janta Ka show. Dream if I can run that down.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-s-f-5-attack-shocking-us-base-bombing-disclosure/ar-AA22E8Bm
Not sure if this is helpful. I think it was NBC that broke the story in the US.
Thanks but the Western reporting is still wrong. See the Iran video dramatization above. It was two F-5s, not one.
sympatico,me too!
Corrections and elaborations.
1. It was an F-5 (singular), not F-15s (plural). [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/an-iranian-vietnam-era-f-5-fighter-jet-slipped-past-patriot-pac-3-batteries-and-bombed-a-us-base-in-kuwait/ar-AA236gll] The difference is generational, with Iranian F-5s dating back to pre-revolutionary days.
In any case, certainly in the latter stages of active fighting instead of exposing their radars the Iranians relied on some kind of a short-range optical tracking system, which is specifically focusing on lower altitudes. So the whole “under the radar” comment feels a bit off.
Moreover, as the incident at Isfahan had shown, and as the IRGC keeps reiterating, the Americans can certainly land a contingent somewhere. In fact, the IRGC wants them so to do, so they could try and trap them. Even if this did not work at Isfahan, the Americans had to run off in great haste and with considerable equipment losses.
2. See [https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Three-Supertankers-Carrying-6-Million-Barrels-Exit-Strait-of-Hormuz.html] for details of the three VLCCs that transited the Strait yesterday. Note this source seems to imply they have gone past the American blockade.
One is indeed carrying Kuwaiti crude, to South Korea, in a South Korean-flagged tanker. I think the Iranian point isn’t that the oil is sourced from Kuwait, but the identity and destination of the vessel. South Korea seemingly hasn’t made any enemies’ list, and was (probably) more than willing to pay the toll. Meanwhile, the two China-bound vessels might not have even had to pay the toll, but note that their registrations (flags) are in China and Hong Kong.
I have embedded the Iranian AI dramatization above. It is hard to miss.
The Iranians claim they did fly under the radar, as in only 100 meters above water/ground.
It clearly shows two Iranian jets attacked and returned safely.
Since the US did not see the aircraft either inbound or outbound, the Iran plane count is far more credible.
However, I did conflate the mention of the F-5s for the Iranian attack with the F-15s sent by the US in pursuit.
In the post, I disagree with the contention that the VLCCs “got past” as opposed to were “allowed to pass”. The US had reasons to let both vessels get to their destinations, particularly the Kuwait oil going to South Korea,
The US position generally (although this again is based on media accounts which are often imprecise) is that the blockade is no way no how of all carrier. It was originally for vessels that had gone to Iranian ports and for sanctioned Iranian tankers. It was then reported as extending to carriers that used the Iranian northern channel as in that = compliance with Iran and perhaps payment of a toll (Iran seems to have a very complex calculus for who pays and how much).
The US blockade seems very fluid, almost as if it comes and goes depending on the vagaries of a madman.
‘Note that the market happy dance took place against a backdrop of deteriorating fundamentals’
I used to think that the market had some pretty sharp people in it who at least had a nodding acquaintance with the concept of price discovery. No more. Whether they are trying to rig the results to profit from or whether they actually listen to Trump’s latest rant and take him seriously is irrelevant. The results are the same. We often talk about Mr. Market here and what he might or might not do but as far as I am concerned, whenever I think of Mr. Market I picture him having Alfred E. Neuman’s face and saying ‘What, me worry?’
Let’s not forget the Plunge Protection Team and their buddies. Could they be up to something? https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/plunge-protection-team.asp
Or could it just be some speculator types? I still remember when oil prices skyrocketed in early 2022 on vague rumors of the possibility of a Russian attack on Ukraine, even though there were no suggestions of impending tightness in supply.
Bottom line: traders can be very, very oblivious…or very, very gullible. Is that mysterious, or what?
The PPP is significant…
I watch PM’s, and the recent silver market is an example of price manipulation…
Spot ran up to $123+ozt. and then got monkeyhammered down to about $65, in a couple of hours, and finally settled around $75…
And has stayed there with a few minor spikes that were quickly returned to about $75…
There is obvious manipulation.
“As long as the music’ playing, you have to dance.”
>NO1 catalogued how US some consumers are cracking under the weight of their borrowings.
There’s been some rather interesting conversation going around the Xitter hellsite the past few days ( involving boomers (assumedly) and the well off trying to explain how things people used to enjoy regularly everyday are actually luxuries (i.e. fast food), and people should be grateful for what little lower quality things they can afford. The MAGA message seems to have lost all hope for a better future, just austerity and spiting your neighbours.
For instance, there’s this nice dumpster fire of a thread from a guy claiming that soda is actually a luxury item (and the dear Malcolm Kyeyune spends some time poking fun at him and others). Now I haven’t drank or bought soda for some years now, but in leafistan at least, I don’t think we would consider soda to be a luxury. Of course, things are generally not that great here either in Toronto. Probably not much will be done besides quiet resignation…
https://x.com/FreeNortherner/status/2056829681937142052
Putin fails to convince Xi Jinping to build gas pipeline to China
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/21/8035669/
Ukraine calls to strip Russia of its permanent UN Security Council member status
https://nashaniva.com/en/395707
Israel parliament approves bill to dissolve itself bringing early elections with surveys predicting Netanyahu will lose
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-vote-dissolve-parliament-may-bring-elections-forward-2026-05-20/
Oil prices jump more than 3% after Iran supreme leader says uranium must remain in country
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/oil-price-today-iran-war-strait-hormuz-trump.html
Taking away Trump’s possibility of a climb down by way of an agreement.
Seems to force his hand; An attack seems very likely.
Buckle up!
Another day, another market-manipulating lie shot down like that Malaysian airliner over Ukraine back a few years ago.
When will this cretinous timeline end? What did we do to deserve it?
Taoiseach calls for EU-Israel trade pact to be suspended after ‘shocking treatment’ of flotilla activists
https://www.thejournal.ie/taoiseach-letter-eu-gaza-activists-treatment-flotilla-israel-7046176-May2026/
European Parliament calls for Turkish troop withdrawal from Cyprus
https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/news/european-parliament-calls-for-turkish-troop-withdrawal-from-cyprus
Russia will provide Cuba with “active support” as the U.S. increases pressure on Havana, Kremlin foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-vladimir-putin-cuba-us-meddling-looms/
European Parliament backs wider Iran sanctions over rights abuses
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605219515
Ukraine condemns Israel’s mistreatment of detained Gaza activists
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-condemns-israels-mistreatment-of-detained-activists/
Trump says he will speak with Taiwan president, a major break in protocol
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/taiwan/trump-says-will-speak-taiwan-president-major-break-protocol-rcna346259
Russia flexes nuclear muscles as tensions rise with NATO
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-delivers-nuclear-munitions-belarus-part-nuclear-drills-2026-05-21/
Abbas complains that funds withheld by Israel are needed to pay terrorist salaries
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-896389
Iraqi man accused of plotting U.S. consulate shooting in Toronto, another attack at a synagogue: ‘In Canada we have our guys’
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/iraqi-man-accused-of-plotting-us-consulate-shooting-in-toronto-another-attack-at-a-synagogue-in-canada-we-have-our-guys/article_e043ce55-67e3-48be-beda-147cdb8ba22e.html
My mind always immediately snaps back to this whenever I hear about negotiations between the United States and anybody else in the Middle East (or in the world!). No matter how many months or years are spent negotiating an agreement with the US, and no matter how many months or years such an agreement may have been in place, the US has repeatedly shown itself willing to abrogate or at least ignore a treaty for the slightest reason, or for no reason at all.
It’s made me realize the role that trust plays in international relations. It’s very strange. Two nations don’t have to intimately trust each other for international agreements to work, but somehow they do have to trust each other a little bit. Think of Nazi Germany and the Allies at the end of World War II. They obviously hated each other at that point, but somehow they (still!) trusted each other enough to believe that their opponent would follow through on an important peace agreement.
Strange to think that a country can sink below that point.
I often wonder if certain professions don’t have a subtle, corrosive effect on themselves and on the people around them.
If you spend your life training and preparing for a certain activity, deep down you are excited and happy when you have a chance to do what you’ve been training for, even though if asked these people would deny it up and down, and probably believe their own denials.
Examples are dentists with tooth decay, firefighters with structure fires, FBI agents with bank robberies, ER workers with heart attacks, and of course military people with wars. Hard to believe that special forces units wouldn’t be thrilled to death to carry out some kind of wartime operation against a foreign country, whether or not it does anything useful and whether or not innocent people are killed in the process.
I’m not singling out any particular profession here, but there is a strange mixture of motivations loose in the population, for better or for worse.