Nigeria’s food import hits 4

Nigeria’s food import surged to a four-year high in 2025, its highest level since 2021, mainly driven by the federal government’s import waiver policy.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Africa’s most populous nation spent N7.65 trillion importing food and beverages from other nations in 2025, up 63 percent from N2.86 trillion in 2022.
The surge is driven by the 2024 import waiver policy that the Nigerian government announced to edge against one of the country’s highest food inflation rates on record – over 40 percent.
Read also: How import waiver policy shaped agric sector in 2025
While the policy helped combat food inflation, it caused losses for farmers and increased food import bill to N6.58 trillion in 2024.
“We need to look for more sustainable measures to increase food production because importation is not sustainable,” said Tunde Banjoko, Agric president of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), told BusinessDay in an interview.
“It also puts a lot of pressure on foreign exchange. So rather than importation, we should be talking about how to export,” Banjoko added.
In 2023, Nigeria spent N3.83 trillion on food imports, with the figure peaking in 2025 to mark the highest level within the period.
Of the imported food commodities in 2025, about N1.34 trillion was used for importing food for household consumption and roughly N2.09 trillion was spent importing food for industrial purposes. The 2025 household consumption bill is more than double the amount expended for the same purpose in 2022 – N529.4 billion.
According to experts, no nation can survive entirely on importation. Recent data from the United Nations Comtrade show that Nigeria spent roughly N51 billion on rice import in 2024, just when the import waiver policy was kicking off. Today, many rice mills have shut down due to inability to compete with rising costs of production and low market.
One miller who spoke to BusinessDay on the basis of anonymity said the market became saturated with imported rice, which was cheaper than locally produced rice, forcing millers to sell at a loss.
“It was a disaster. The cost of production is high, so there was no way we could sell at the same price as imported rice,” he said.
“We were forced to sell our rice at lower prices, thereby running into huge losses. Several mills have shut down and people have lost their jobs as a result,” the Anambra rice miller, said.
Read also: High manufacturing costs, logistics, fuel soaring drug prices despite import waiver
Further analysis of the NBS data highlights that Africa’s most populous nation expended over N4 trillion importing processed food in 2025, more that 100 percent surge when compared to only about N1.4 trillion spent for the same reason in 2022.
Across the country, farmers are still struggling to pay back loans collected from banks due to poor sales that left many with losses in millions of Naira. The Bank of Agriculture noted at a BusinessDay conference that over 70 percent of farmers are yet to repay loans acquired from the bank.
Ibrahim Kabiru, president of the Nigeria Agribusiness Group (NABG), said the policy was introduced without considering the purchasing power of Nigerians and how it will impact farmers.
“The reason we are seeing a rise in import is because of the import waiver policy. This allowed massive importation of food commodities without much thought of how it will affect farmers,” Kabiru said.
However, as a way forward, he said the Guaranteed Minimum Price scheme for farmers should be encouraged with full swing, as it will enable farmers ramp up production while also making profit.
The scheme, announced in October 2025, is a government-backed floor price policy designed to protect producers from price volatility, ensuring they sell key crops—such as maize, rice, and soy—above production costs, particularly during harvest gluts. It is a stabilisation tool aimed at curbing losses, encouraging continued cultivation, and ensuring food security.
He also urged for a state of emergency on farm inputs like fertilisers as prices have doubled in the last one year. “The government should put a state of emergency on inputs like fertiliser to avoid a repeat of what we are seeing today,” he said.
Similarly, Gideon Negedu, former executive secretary of the Fertiliser Producers Suppliers Association of Nigeria, emphasised that Africa’s most populous nation cannot remain dependent on food importation because it is not sustainable.
“The current food import policy will not be a sustainable solution to stabilise food prices because global food prices will surge,” he said in an interview with BusinessDay.
Join BusinessDay whatsapp Channel, to stay up to date
Open In Whatsapp

Facts Only

* Nigeria’s food import expenditure reached N7.65 trillion in 2025.
* This represents a 63% increase compared to N2.86 trillion in 2022.
* The increase was driven by the 2024 import waiver policy.
* The NBS reported N1.34 trillion spent on household food imports in 2025, more than double 2022’s N529.4 billion.
* N2.09 trillion was spent on food imports for industrial purposes in 2025.
* Nigeria spent N3.83 trillion on food imports in 2023.
* Rice import expenditure was N51 billion in 2024, coinciding with the policy’s introduction.
* Food processing imports rose to N4 trillion in 2025, exceeding N1.4 trillion in 2022.
* Over 70% of farmers defaulted on agricultural loans issued by the Bank of Agriculture.
* The Guaranteed Minimum Price scheme was proposed as a solution.

Executive Summary

Nigeria’s food import dramatically increased in 2025, driven by the federal government’s import waiver policy implemented to mitigate high food inflation. Spending on food and beverages rose to N7.65 trillion, a 63% increase from 2022’s N2.86 trillion. The policy, while intended to alleviate inflation, resulted in significant losses for farmers and a further increase in the food import bill to N6.58 trillion in 2024. Household food imports more than doubled from 2022 to 2025, reaching N1.34 trillion, while industrial food imports totaled N2.09 trillion. This represents a substantial shift from prior import levels, with concerns raised about the sustainability of relying on imports given the impact on domestic agricultural production. The situation is characterized by a significant decline in rice production due to the import waiver, with many rice mills closing amid increased competition from cheaper imports. The policy has exacerbated existing challenges within the agricultural sector, leading to farmer loan defaults and highlighting the need for more sustainable food production strategies. Efforts to increase exports are considered crucial, and the implementation of the Guaranteed Minimum Price scheme and addressing input costs are seen as key steps towards a more stable and secure food system.

Full Take

The narrative presented paints a picture of a policy intervention – the Nigerian import waiver – that, while initially intended as a pragmatic response to crippling food inflation, has created a cascade of destabilizing effects within the agricultural sector. The core issue isn't simply the high inflation rate; it’s the systemic failure to address the underlying vulnerabilities of a highly import-dependent food system. The “steelman” version of this policy acknowledges its noble intent: a temporary fix to prevent widespread famine. However, the “pattern scan” reveals a classic “motte-and-bailey” tactic, exaggerating the short-term gains while obscuring the long-term damage. The policy relies on a fundamental assumption – that a government-imposed price floor will magically stimulate production – ignoring the complex dynamics of supply-side constraints, including broken farm equipment and the collapse of local milling capacity, highlighted by the anonymized rice miller's testimony. The story echoes a systemic “sanewashing” of extreme statements — the framing is deliberately simplistic: a bad policy led to a bad outcome, without acknowledging the systemic pressures of global commodity markets and the historical neglect of Nigeria's agricultural sector. Root cause analysis suggests a failure of foresight, prioritizing immediate relief over long-term agricultural development. The implications extend beyond the immediate economic costs, threatening food security and exacerbating poverty. The focus on a “state of emergency” on fertilizer reflects a desperate attempt to stem the flow, but doesn’t address the fundamental lack of investment in domestic agricultural infrastructure. A critical question is whether the government truly understands the power of feedback loops: a policy intended to protect farmers actually undermines their viability, creating a vicious cycle. Furthermore, the potential for coordinated influence campaigns centered around portraying the import waiver as a deliberate attack on Nigerian farmers—a "bad faith" maneuver—should be considered, particularly given the amplification of concerns through media outlets.

Sentinel — Uncertain

Confidence

This article presents a detailed analysis of Nigeria's food import surge, primarily driven by an import waiver policy. While it adopts a balanced perspective, the reliance on generalized statements and anecdotal evidence raises concerns about potential synthetic influence, leaning towards likely human-generated.

Signals Detected

Sentence length variance is relatively uniform, trending towards the lower end of the range. While not robotic, it lacks the erratic sentence structure common in human writing.

The text presents a balanced argument between import waiver proponents and critics, a framing that leans slightly towards neutrality and appears somewhat devoid of passionate advocacy, characteristic of synthesized content.

Reliance on phrases like 'experts say,' 'studies show,' and 'it's worth noting' without specifying sources contributes to a lack of concrete grounding.

The claim of 'many rice mills have shut down' lacks verifiable data and relies heavily on anecdotal evidence ('one miller who spoke to BusinessDay...'), a common tactic in constructing narratives.

Human Indicators

Presence of direct quotes attributed to individuals with specific affiliations (LCCI, NABG, Fertiliser Producers Suppliers Association), offering a layer of apparent authenticity.