Russian leader Vladimir Putin must not be granted any lifelines nor any glimmer of hope that Russia's aggression in Ukraine will ever reap benefits, President Alar Karis said.
The collective West must remain firm in every sphere, at a time when Russian participation has been creeping back into cultural and sporting events, the head of state went on, addressing the 2026 Lennart Meri Conference.
"Fortune favors the brave": This is the motto of the 2026 Lennart Meri Conference.
Like many great quotations, it originates from a wartime speech – a rallying cry before battle, a call for courage in the face of danger. Most countries in Europe are not at war – at least not in the traditional sense. Yet we nevertheless face existential dangers and profound risks.
The values of the free world and the international rules-based order, which we cherish so deeply, are under attack from many directions. The autocracies of the world often seem more successful in swinging their swords than democracies are in raising their shields.
The assault on the core principles of the international order has long been recognized as the defining challenge of our time. We discuss it at security conferences, and it features prominently in our foreign policy speeches.
But if our values are under attack, then why are some of us still waiting for others to defend them on our behalf? Why should Europe not itself become the force that defends the international order and the values of the free world? What is preventing Europe from being brave? From being bold?
Some hope that today's challenges will simply pass, and that history will somehow return to normal. Others fear that difficult decisions may make the next election more difficult. Both sentiments are understandable. Comfort, stability, and prosperity are part of what makes Europe Europe.
But our prosperity, our comforts, everything that feels familiar and secure to us – indeed, our very identity – ultimately rests upon freedom and the rule of law that protects it.
Europe was built from the determination that law must prevail over force, that human dignity matters, and that nations – large and small – have equal rights under international law. Europe was never built merely for convenience or comfort.
And bravery requires stepping outside one's comfort zone. It would not be bravery if it were easy or risk-free. Therefore, the brave choice for Europe is to step forward. To assume leadership – in Europe and in the wider world.
The brave choice is to build a Europe that is militarily capable and resilient. Deterrence comes from credible strength. Credibility comes from military capability. And military capability comes from bold and focused investment.
Five percent is not merely a number. It is the minimum requirement for a Europe capable of defending and protecting itself. These hundreds of billions of euros must be invested in air defense, long-range weapons, ammunition, intelligence, drone warfare, and in closing the remaining gaps in our defenses.
Politically, the brave thing for Europe is to stand up to all those who attack our values – consistently, everywhere, and at all times. Europe is standing up to Russia by helping Ukraine succeed on the battlefield; by enforcing sanctions against Russia's war economy; by jointly disrupting Russia's hybrid attacks, sabotage campaigns, and shadow fleet.
But we must remain firm in every dimension – including by refusing to allow Russia back into film festivals or international sports competitions. Putin must not be given lifelines, nor any glimmer of hope that aggression will ultimately be rewarded.
Economically, the brave course is to scale up Europe's defense industrial production, sharpen Europe's technological edge, and secure our supply chains. Europe is already moving in that direction. New defense companies are emerging with innovative ideas. European industries are establishing co-production capacities, and our governments are increasingly procuring jointly. But we need to be more agile on that path.
Most importantly, we must develop our industries in close cooperation with Ukraine's defense sector – today the fastest-growing and most innovative defense industry in the world.
Friends, this brings me naturally to my next point: Perhaps the boldest and bravest step Europe can take is to advance enlargement – helping Ukraine and Moldova, as well as Montenegro, Albania, and other candidate countries, toward full membership in the European Union.
Accession negotiations should no longer be delayed. Their membership will strengthen Europe's security, resilience, industrial capacity, and long-term competitiveness.
Ukraine as an ally would also make NATO stronger. Ukraine possesses one of the largest and most battle-tested armed forces in Europe. NATO is already learning from Ukraine's experience in adapting to modern warfare – technologically, operationally, and tactically. The Ukrainian people have demonstrated extraordinary resilience and courage in defending the principles upon which Europe itself was built.
Both alliances stand to benefit enormously from the membership of such a resilient, combat-proven, and innovative nation. And if we were to advance Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO already now – despite Russia's threats and ongoing aggression – what clearer demonstration could there be of European strength and determination?
But dear ladies and gentlemen, let me also be clear: being bold does not mean weakening our transatlantic ties. Quite the contrary. Europeans and Americans ultimately share the same core values. These values run deep within us, and they have united us in successful alliances throughout history.
Just as a warrior needs two strong legs to stand firmly, NATO requires both a strong Europe and a strong America to prevail in the world of tomorrow.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Europe does possess bravery. We must now bring it to the forefront. Let us put Europe in the lead – on our continent and on the global stage. So that fortune may indeed favor us.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Kaupo Meiel
Facts Only
Alar Karis, President of Estonia, spoke at the 2026 Lennart Meri Conference.
The conference's motto was "Fortune favors the brave."
Karis stated that Vladimir Putin must not be given any lifelines or hope that Russia's aggression in Ukraine will be rewarded.
He criticized the creeping return of Russian participation in cultural and sporting events.
Karis called for Europe to assume leadership in defending the international order and democratic values.
He argued that Europe must invest at least 5% of its resources in military capabilities, including air defense, long-range weapons, and drone warfare.
He emphasized the need for Europe to stand firm against Russia in all dimensions, including sanctions and countering hybrid attacks.
Karis advocated for scaling up Europe's defense industrial production and technological edge.
He proposed advancing EU and NATO enlargement, specifically mentioning Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro, and Albania.
He highlighted Ukraine's battle-tested military and defense industry as assets to NATO and the EU.
Karis stressed the importance of maintaining strong transatlantic ties between Europe and the U.S.
He concluded by urging Europe to embrace bravery and leadership on the global stage.
Executive Summary
Alar Karis, President of Estonia, delivered a speech at the 2026 Lennart Meri Conference, emphasizing the need for the collective West to remain resolute against Russian aggression in Ukraine. He argued that Europe must take a leadership role in defending the international rules-based order, advocating for increased military investment, economic resilience, and the expansion of both NATO and the EU to include Ukraine and other candidate countries. Karis warned against normalizing Russia's participation in cultural and sporting events, stating that such actions could provide "lifelines" to Vladimir Putin. He framed Europe's prosperity as dependent on freedom and the rule of law, urging bold action to counter authoritarian threats. The speech highlighted the importance of transatlantic cooperation while calling for Europe to strengthen its own defense capabilities and industrial capacity, particularly in collaboration with Ukraine's rapidly growing defense sector.
The address underscored the existential risks facing Europe, framing the conflict in Ukraine as a broader struggle between democratic values and autocratic aggression. Karis positioned Ukraine's potential EU and NATO membership as a strategic and moral imperative, citing its battle-tested military and resilience as assets to both alliances. He also stressed the need for Europe to move beyond comfort and stability, advocating for decisive action despite political or electoral concerns. The speech concluded with a call for European bravery and leadership, both regionally and globally, to ensure the preservation of the free world's principles.
Full Take
Alar Karis's speech is a rallying cry for European assertiveness, framing the conflict in Ukraine as a civilizational struggle between democracy and autocracy. The strongest version of this narrative is its moral clarity: Europe's prosperity and identity are rooted in freedom and the rule of law, and complacency risks eroding these foundations. Karis effectively steelmans the case for European leadership by tying military investment, economic resilience, and enlargement to a coherent vision of security. However, the speech also employs patterns of emotional appeal, particularly in its invocation of bravery and existential danger, which could be seen as a form of moral urgency framing (ARC-0012). The binary framing of "autocracies swinging swords" versus "democracies raising shields" risks oversimplifying complex geopolitical dynamics, though it serves a motivational purpose.
The root cause of this narrative is a paradigm shift in European security thinking, accelerated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Karis assumes that Europe's historical reliance on transatlantic security guarantees is insufficient for the challenges ahead, and that only bold, unified action can deter further aggression. This echoes Cold War-era strategic thinking but updates it for a multipolar world where economic and technological resilience are as critical as military strength. The implications are significant: if Europe heeds this call, it could reshape the continent's defense posture, industrial base, and geopolitical influence. However, the costs—economic strain, political division, and potential escalation—are acknowledged but downplayed in favor of the moral imperative.
Bridge questions: What would a sustainable European defense strategy look like without over-reliance on U.S. support? How can the EU balance enlargement with internal cohesion, given the diverse security concerns of member states? What metrics would indicate whether this approach is strengthening or destabilizing the international order?
Counterstrike scan: If this were part of a coordinated influence campaign, the playbook would involve amplifying fears of Russian aggression, framing inaction as moral failure, and positioning EU/NATO expansion as the only viable solution. While the speech aligns with this pattern structurally, it does not exhibit the hallmarks of manipulation (e.g., fabricated evidence, deceptive framing). Instead, it reflects a genuine strategic perspective, albeit one that could be weaponized by bad actors to justify escalatory policies. The content does not match a hypothetical attack version, as it engages with real geopolitical challenges rather than manufactured crises.
Sentinel — Human
This text demonstrates the high-level rhetorical style of a human political speech, focusing on synthesizing geopolitical concerns into an assertive call for European action and policy.