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Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged more than 3% to $97.29 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped 3.42% to $91.71 a barrel.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that they struck a US airbase at around 4:50 a.m. local time, according to the country’s semi-official Tasnim news agency, though the IRGC did not disclose the location of the base.
US officials said Central Command forces shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones that posed a threat near the Strait of Hormuz. The US military also struck an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas that was preparing to launch a fifth drone.
The latest escalation comes days after the US military carried out what it described as “self-defense strikes” in southern Iran, targeting vessels allegedly attempting to deploy mines along with missile launch sites. US Central Command said the operation was aimed at protecting American troops and commercial shipping routes.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps later said it would respond to ceasefire violations after detecting and engaging US drones and an F-35 fighter jet that had entered Iranian airspace. A US official said the latest strikes targeted an Iranian military facility believed to pose a threat to American forces and maritime traffic moving through the strait.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said Iran was “negotiating on fumes” and added that the upcoming US midterm elections would not pressure him into rushing a deal to end the nearly three-month-old conflict.
In a note released late Wednesday, Citi said oil markets were stabilising as investors gradually moved away from pricing in severe supply disruption risks amid signs of progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
However, the bank said uncertainty around the timing of any agreement continued to keep central banks cautious, as policymakers assessed the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices.
Citi added that the sustained rise in crude prices was beginning to feed into broader inflation pressures through what it described as “second round effects”, pushing some central banks toward a more hawkish stance.
Swiss investment bank UBS said on Friday that pressure on the global oil market was intensifying as inventories continued to shrink amid disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank noted that global oil inventories declined by a combined 246 million barrels in March and April, while cumulative production losses could exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of May.
Analysts said that even if a deal is reached, shipping activity through the strait may take several months to normalise, while damaged energy infrastructure could take even longer to recover fully.
Earlier this month, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that disruptions in Hormuz could delay stability in global oil markets until 2027, with nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply per week potentially impacted. Saudi Aramco is the world’s largest oil producer.
Morgan Stanley described the current oil market as being in “a race against time”, saying the factors that have so far prevented a sharper rise in crude prices may weaken if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut through June.
The brokerage said higher US crude exports and softer demand from China had helped absorb part of the supply shock. However, it cautioned that an extended closure of Hormuz could tighten global supplies again if disruptions continue beyond what the US and China can comfortably offset.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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Facts Only
Brent crude surged over 3% to $97.29 per barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 3.42% to $91.71 per barrel.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed to have struck a U.S. airbase at 4:50 a.m. local time.
U.S. forces shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. military struck an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas.
The U.S. conducted "self-defense strikes" in southern Iran, targeting vessels and missile sites.
Iran’s IRGC accused the U.S. of ceasefire violations, engaging drones and an F-35 fighter jet.
President Donald Trump stated Iran was "negotiating on fumes" and dismissed election pressure.
Citi reported oil markets stabilizing but noted inflationary risks from elevated energy prices.
UBS highlighted shrinking global oil inventories, with losses exceeding 1 billion barrels by May.
Analysts warned of prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, delaying market stability.
Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned of potential weekly supply disruptions of 100 million barrels.
Morgan Stanley described the oil market as in a "race against time," citing risks of tighter supplies.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The narrative presents a high-stakes geopolitical conflict with immediate economic consequences, but the framing leans toward escalation without sufficient exploration of de-escalation pathways. The strongest version of this narrative highlights legitimate security concerns—U.S. forces defending against drone threats and Iran responding to perceived violations—but the absence of diplomatic context risks amplifying tension as inevitable. The financial analysis from Citi and UBS provides valuable context, yet the focus on supply disruptions and inflationary pressures could inadvertently reinforce a sense of inevitability around prolonged conflict.
Patterns detected: ARC-0024 Ambiguity (lack of clarity on Iran’s exact targets or U.S. long-term strategy), ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey (Trump’s dismissive rhetoric shifts between negotiation leverage and election politics).
Root cause: The paradigm assumes military posturing is the primary driver of oil market volatility, but it underplays the role of diplomatic channels or third-party mediation. The unstated assumption is that energy markets are hostage to geopolitical brinkmanship, echoing historical patterns of resource-driven conflicts.
Implications: Human agency is framed as reactive—markets stabilize or destabilize based on military actions, not proactive diplomacy. The costs are borne by global consumers facing inflation, while benefits accrue to those positioning themselves as indispensable energy suppliers (e.g., Saudi Aramco).
Bridge questions: What diplomatic off-ramps exist beyond military strikes? How might alternative energy transitions reshape this dynamic? What would it take for media coverage to prioritize de-escalation narratives over conflict framing?
Counterstrike scan: A coordinated influence campaign would amplify fear of supply shortages while downplaying diplomatic progress. The article’s focus on military actions and market reactions aligns with this pattern but stops short of outright manipulation. The lack of voices advocating for negotiation balance suggests a structural bias toward conflict framing, though not necessarily intentional.
Sentinel — Human
The text exhibits the clear structure and sourcing of human-written financial news, balancing conflict reporting with economic analysis, and shows low indicators of synthetic generation.