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I'm Shaun Haney and this is RealAg on the Weekend. Let's get real and get connected with the week that was in Canadian agriculture. Reel Ag on the Weekend starts now. Welcome to Reel Ag on the Weekend. I'm your host Shaun Haney of RealAgriculture.com hopefully had yourselves a great week. Mother Nature is not being too kind to us. Although the temperatures heating up and it feels a little bit more like what we would identify as spring. Horrific winds in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan this week and down through Manitoba into the Northern Plains, the United States as well. Oh, awful. Saskatchewan in the southwest corner had power out for what, like two full days? Something like that. And then, and we still have like an abundance of, of, of moisture in the, on the eastern side of Saskatchewan. It is just, yeah, just feast or famine, it seems for sure. Dirt blowing all over the place in some parts. But hope you had yourselves a great week. We're speaking of the weather. We're gonna hear from Matt Makins of Makin's Weather here today on the show. He chatted with Lindsay Smith earlier this week on Ag Radio Podcast. We've got a product spotlight with basf. Bethany Wyatt will join us. And then I've got some new data from RealAgristudies looking at the idea. Will there be structural change in agriculture? You're going to want to cheque that out as well. The farmer's definitely feeling pretty strongly a certain way for sure. If you have any feedback on today's show, you can send me an email shaneeyealagriculture.com you can also call or text the RealAg feedback line. 855776, 6147. Let's get to Lindsay Smith's conversation with Matt Makins of Makins Weather.
All right, we head now to, well, something that's top of mind for just about everybody right now. It's the weather. I've got Matt Makins with Makins Weather joining me here. Matt, you were on a little while ago, few weeks now and Shaun Haney has been referring back to your outlook constantly. Mostly because you were right and maybe not in a great way, but welcome here.
Please tell me it's going to warm up warmer. Yes. Off to your west mostly. But during the next week to two weeks you're going to see a big old bullseye of red on the maps. The heat building across the west and it does eventually expand your way. Just kind of a delayed spring, I guess. Not delayed, but just cooler than maybe some of the past few springs have been. But yeah, it's going to all be eaten away. And we'll have these warmer temperatures kind of building in again over the next several weeks. Anybod out toward, you know, Alberta, Saskatchewan, they're like, we're already hot. We're going to surpass, you know, pretty warm temperatures on some cases, some records possible. So they're going to send it your way pretty soon.
Yeah, let's hope. Okay. But let's recap though. Sort of where we're at, where you sit. You finally got snow for this past winter, which, like this feels weird. What kind of, what kind of trend did we see this winter sort of close out on?
For most of the western US and western Canada, with the exception of some of the mountains and some folks in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with the exception of those places, it was historically hot, historically dry for most of the western US Historically snowless. Not that some of the mountains didn't get snow, which is melted too quickly because of the warmth. So, you know, for stream flows, reservoirs, there's some talking points there. Soil moisture is really poor across the states, across a lot of Canada. Got to get some water into that soil because for a lot of us, what did fall was on, you know, hard ground, frozen. So, you know, we kind of ended a very warm winter. Now we're in a very warm spring period. We're going to see a big boost in these temperatures to even add to that over the next couple of weeks. So soil for me is top of mind. It didn't recover in the winter. It's not recovering now, by and large. And we have this warmth building in. And we all know that warmth, dry soil, drought, right.
That's right.
So that's kind of where we are for spring right now.
Yeah. And I know that rain sort of begets rain. Does dry beget dry? Like, is it really sort of what you end up in it just then it gets persistent?
Yeah, sure it does. And for, you know, a lot of central Canada, we kind of rely on some of the summer moistures. Whether it be August or September, maybe into October, we rely on that moisture. And a lot of times it can come out of the southern U.S. and when the southern U.S. is so dry, they're going to, you know, that atmosphere just eats that moisture. If it was a no drought There and everybody was green. That just helps perpetuate, move that flow northward. So to have drought anywhere, it begets drought and you know, soggy soil begets soggy soil. So yes, it does tie in. And, and for, you know, largely the beef herd, that's kind of more of a primary concern because we rely on the monsoon, we call it, that's the summer rains to give a boost to the past. And it's probably going to be delayed because of drought and trying to overcome that.
Now, focusing on the west, that was one of the points that you made back in, I think it was early February of a late spring warm up is maybe a good thing because we may be to the dry side. So the later we can sort of push that start, the better. What weather pattern is that? Is that setting up as you thought it would?
It is pretty much by and large, you know, there's a sliver from. Just take Calgary and then stretch it out toward Regina or. So there was a sliver in there that was very. Once winter was done, you know, several weeks ago, it got hot and they're really dry too. So the drought of Montana and the Dakotas kind of moved up quickly. So the exception of that kind of arrow point head, if you will, rest of Canada's performed very well for the forecast. I think, you know, delaying kind of the warm up in the spring can help hold on to that soil moisture, let the soil wake up, let the grasses, all the vegetation kind of wake up, get some moisture on it, especially in April and early May before we may face the hotter temperatures which are building in now and periods where we're going to be too dry going forward. So I think, you know, when I talked to Shaun, yeah, I think that was the first week of February or so.
So yeah.
And then was up in Alberta a couple of times in February and March. And all of those forecasts remain on track. But out of all of those forecasts we talked about the speed of this El Nino event. Moving in can have an impact on our summer and our fall also. And that still remains on track too.
You know, really if you look in some parts, especially in the western part of the United States, never really had winter. Like I was in Wyoming this week speaking at an Ag Bankers meeting and yeah, like really didn't get a lot of winter, which is very unusual. Not a good year to own a ski hill in places like Colorado. And you know, we talk about trying to rebuild the cowherd. In order to do that in Canada or the U.S. you have to have markets the markets have lined up and in saying, hey, supply needs to increase, okay? But if you also got to have Mother Nature help out, you need, you need grass and you need water. And in some of our most populous cattle areas, that is, that is a real challenge. And that is, we can talk from a government, you know, I get this letter, I get this kind of email from the audience, lots is that, you know, should the government be pushing and trying to come up with programming to entice producers? Well, yeah, we can, you can put in that kind of programme to reward producers for retaining some heifers. Yes, but, but that doesn't solve the grass problem and the water issues. Right. And so there, therein lies the challenge. We've been listening to Lindsay Smith's discussion with Matt Makins of Makins Weather out of Colorado, one of those dry spots. And we're going to be back with more of RealAg on the weekend. We're going to continue this discussion with Matt Makins right after this quick break here on RealAg on the weekend with your host, Shaun Haney of RealAgriculture.com feel
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And we're back here on RealAg on the Weekend. It's great to be with you, Shaun haney of real agriculture.com and highly encourage you to cheque out real agriculture.com for all your insights on what is happening in the world of agriculture. You know, whether it's the RealAg Radio podcast or this show, Real Life on the Weekend, we can't squeeze everything in. No, we cannot. Okay. They would. We'd have to get more airtime and they won't give it to us. So you got to go to real agriculture.com and please also sign up for our free emails@real agriculture.com subscribe so you don't miss anything. It's all in your inbox. Let's continue the discussion that Lindsey Smith of RealAgriculture.com had with Matt Makins of Makins Weather.
Let's zoom out. Bigger picture. As you mentioned this, this move to El Nino, what can you tell me there? Is it a strong El Nino, a weak El Nino? Is it shaping up at the speed that we thought? Where are we at right now as far as looking at this next weather pattern?
Okay, so we were in La Nina for two winters. Classic. That's a better snow producer, colder winter situation for Canada. Now we're transitioning to El Nino. It's a very rapid transition. It's one that looked like 1997, which was back at El Nino by early summer. So we're trending toward an El Nino event. It's already basically established in the ocean conditions and I see no reason why it would stall out or stop. So we're going to continue to warm up. That ocean area we call, when it gets warmer, we call that El Nino and it will head. We break these things down. So we look at the ocean temperatures in the central Pacific and let's just say they're a half a degree Celsius to 1 degree Celsius above normal. That's a weak El Nino event. This one's likely, likely to move to a strong or very strong, which would be closer to 2 degrees Celsius, if not warmer than that in those ocean areas. And you're thinking, okay, what is 1 degree Celsius of ocean? What does that matter? Well, it's a huge impact, not necessarily for central or Eastern Canada, but western Canada, the strength of an event really dramatically changes the placement of water, placement of precipitation for central and eastern Canada. I know El Nino is a big talking point. La Nina is, too, for the ag communities. But if you really look at the statistics of it, the correlation of your weather patterns is tied more highly to some other factors than just El Nino or La Nina. So for you, for the Maritimes, for a lot of Ontario, some of Manitoba, it's lesser the El Nino thing. And that's really more for Saskatchewan, Alberta and B.C.
and on that note, it typically means drier than drier and hotter for the prairies.
Yes. First off, it would mean warmer temperatures. So a warmer winter. When we hear El Nino for Canada, you need to plan on immediately a warmer winter, more mud events for a snowpack situation. El Nino typically does decrease the amount of snowfall countrywide. And its biggest impact are the Rockies. So stream flows, irrigation, that kind of thing. It dramatically decreases that snowpack. And the stronger El Nino gets, the drier we are. East of the Rockies, there's some pockets of B.C. that'll still get some water, but that, you know, the biggest impact, first off, needs to be temperatures. I'm thinking a warmer season, warmer fall, maybe that extends, you know, fieldwork days. But it also can mean muddier situations and a warmer winter for next winter. So those are the biggest takeaw. But you have to I. In the weather world, we love to clump El Nino as you're going to get X, Y and Z because it's El Nino. It doesn't work like that.
Right.
I can show you maps of every El Nino event that have ever occurred. And you see. Well, they're all very different because they are. So we're talking generalities here.
Right. I also like that ocean temperatures are measured in Celsius. So I'm just going to put that out there for you, Matt. It makes sense. It's a scale of 100. I don't. What are you doing down there with the Fahrenheit?
Okay, you know, that's a very good question. I have no idea what we're doing.
What are we doing? Okay, so. And you bring up 97, which is interesting because I. In Manitoba, that was the last major, major flood. Like the huge flood was 97. But interestingly, I don't really remember the growing season after that. So there you go. I was quite young. That's what I'm gonna go with on that one. So there you go. But I do that. That does ring a bell on that one.
You know, I Should add in. Sorry to cut you off. I should add in that if. If we go from like a weak El Nino, that's. We're not gonna have that, we're gonna be stronger. But if you go strong to very strong to one of the historically strong ones, what that does is it magnifies your impact. So you brought up Manitoba.
Yeah.
If El Nino brings wet weather to this person, being a very strong super event magnifies their risk of getting too much water, or if you're in an El Nino dry zone, it magnifies your dryness. So the strength of it, the event just. It takes your extremes and magnifies their potential. That's what the super event would do.
Okay, so that's interesting. So it doesn't necessarily impact a larger area per se, but it may impact the areas impacted more. So more excessive water if you get excessive water or more drought if you
get excessive drought for North America generally. Yes, that is true. Yeah. Yeah. If you're a wet area, you get wetter. It can expand water a bit and cover more of the northern us, Southern Canada with a strong El Nino of it, but it's really more the impact magnifier.
Okay. All right. I guess that. That's our warning, everybody. So. So if you end up in a wet cycle, you may be stuck there. And conversely. So plan accordingly, everybody. All right, Matt, thank you so much for joining me on the show. Really appreciate it.
My pleasure. Anytime.
That was Matt Makins of Makin's Weather. You know, Lindsay always brings up the Fahrenheit thing. I grew up in a house where it was like interchangeable. You know, when you. When you kind of grow up an hour from the Montana border, you, you. I remember my parents, my. I remember my dad just hating. He's like kind of still does the metric system, right. And talking about how just, oh, man, why did we do this? And so he talked a lot in Fahrenheit and Celsius, but it was like you sort of just picked it up and how you do the calculation. There's pretty easy calculations in your head and able to do the conversion. But, you know, if you didn't go up around that, I could see how the metric system does make a lot more sense. But also Fahrenheit does too. I know Lindsay and I disagree on this, but. Yeah, I've told the storey before on real agriculture.com but my like measurements. And I remember my dad always, he still does as well. Toxin rods. And if you know what a Rod is, it's 16 and a half feet. And my, yeah, my dad be like, I don't know, it's like three rods. And as a kid you're like, does anybody know what he's talking about? Does anybody rod what? Like, you know, next it's going to be stones and things like that. We once did like a weird Real Agriculture poll, talking about some of the odd measurements that we still refer to today, like hands and horses. Does that, does that really make sense to anybody? No, because if I remember correctly, it was the king's hands. Well, which king? Right. That's a weird one that comes to mind. Maybe you've got your own weird measurements that you still use that seem incredibly strange but very common and everybody knows exactly who what you were talking about. For me it would be rods. My dad still talks in rods and I get Fahrenheit and bugs. I'm also somebody that loves the 24 hour clock. I switch all of our house clocks to it, the vehicles, drives the kids and my wife absolutely crazy. That what is this 24 hour clock you speak of? I've always been that way. I've always just everything's on the 24 hour clock. We've got more of a real Egg of the Weekend coming up right after this.
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Realag Radio is Canada's only daily radio show focused on agriculture. Get expert advice on agronomic Monday, Tuesdays and Wednesdays will cover a broad range of issues. Thursday, we'll hear from farmers across the country on the Farmer Rabbit Fire and we'll wrap things up Fridays with the RealAg Issues panel with Kelvin Hepner and Lindsey Smith. Join us Monday through Friday at 4:30 Eastern and don't forget about the replay at 7 in the morning on Rural Radio 147 SiriusXM. Get all the information you need to keep your Pulse crop healthy and profitable with the Pulse School on Real Agriculture.com the Pulse School is a free YouTube video series covering agronomy research and more across a host of different pulse crops. It's also available as an audio podcast wherever you download or stream your favourite podcast. Cheque us out on YouTube or visit RealAgriculture.com the Pulse School brought to you by BSF Canada. The following is a paid for Product Spotlight by BSF Canada. It's now time for a Product Spotlight here on reelection on the weekend. Joining me right now is Bethany Wyatt. She is the technical services specialist with BASF at a Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. Bethany, how are we doing?
Very well. How are you doing?
I'm doing really well. So today we're going to talk about fungicides and trying to manage, do some management around resistance management and pulse crops. How real is fungicide resistance risk in pulse crops today?
So fungicide resistance risk in pulse crops today is very real. It's, it's already here, it's ongoing and it's widespread. Specifically with the Group 11s we've confirmed or Group 11 resistance in pulse crops was first confirmed in chickpeas in with ascochyta back in the early 2000s. So it's definitely not new. Mycosprella in peas was first confirmed in 2008 and most recently BSF confirmed group 11 resistant anthracnose in lentils in 2019. Not really a surprise given the history. We've definitely relied very much so on those Group 11s for the better part of two decades now. And also just knowing that Group 11's frac. So the fungicide Resistance Action Committee, they have like, we know that group elevens are definitely the highest risk when it comes to developing resistance. On top of that, there really are only a few other actives that we do heavily rely on in western Canada. So that would be the threes and sevens in addition to the 11. So not a lot of tools in our toolbox. And really the nature of pulse crop diseases, they're polycyclic in nature, so that means there's multiple disease cycles per year. We sometimes apply more than one application per season. And these diseases, of course, they're stubble borne, they can be spread locally and with rain splash, but then also by wind. So kind of all of these factors together put us at continued risk for resistance not only continued with Group 11, but potentially other groups as we are so limited with the options to begin with.
Yeah, that definitely all adds up. Curious. Are there common mistakes that are being made when it comes to fungicide resistance management?
Yeah, so I mean I think with the whole there's been a lot more awareness, especially with Group 11 resistance. So I think that has maybe just helped bring it to light. But some of the mistakes that I think would still maybe be happening would be just not being proactive or not assuming that you already have resistance. Because if you think that you have or are aware of it, you're obviously going to be doing different things that are going to help lower the risk to begin with. But simple things like, you know, if we're still applying a product that's only a single mode of action probably should be moving to at least a couple. Couple modes of effective action. We don't want to be applying anything but that labelled rate. And then again, if we are applying multiple applications of a fungicide in a season, we want to make sure that we are rotating groups. So just keeping those in mind, those are all things that can help at least delay the onset of more resistance.
Yeah, you mentioned the rate there. And I think we should hit on the importance of using strong effective rates on these products that we're in the field. And cutting rates is not an answer, especially at a time where there is concern about farm profitability. There's places to cut. That is not one of them.
No, absolutely. I think that's one of the best places to start with is product selection, making sure that you have a product that has very strong Actives, but make sure that we are using it at full rates and not cutting those rates. Because of course, if you're using a product and you're not applying at full rates, you're almost asking for resistance because you're applying it at just small enough rates that the pathogen can overcome it and then that just leads to increased resistance and at a much quicker rate.
Now, a lot of times we'll hear this is the same when it comes to weed resistance too. We'll hear, you know, multiple modes of action. And so you can talk about the importance of that and how that plays in protecting chemistry's longevity in effectiveness in the market. But I'll ask a follow up to that right away as well. Does the use of multiple modes of action just not increase the probability we have resistance with those multiple modes at the same time? Do you see what I mean there?
Yeah, definitely. So to answer the first part, there are a lot of products coming out now with many, many different Actives in it. And having a product that has multiple modes of effective action is definitely the important part. So kind of two answers with this first part. You can have a product that has multiple ingredients or AIs, but we need to make sure we understand what each of those individual Actives are contributing. For example, you may have a product today that contains three Actives. So great, you know, more Actives cheques the box. We're doing a good job. But in an example, let's say with Group 11 resistant anthracnose and lentils, if you're using a product that, say, has a group 11, well, if you have resistance, which we know is very, very widespread, that's not adding anything to it. And then if you have another Active in there might not actually have activity on the key disease of concern. So it may not be adding much to it. You might actually be left with only one Active that is doing most of the heavy lifting.
Good point.
So that's really what we see. So more ingredients isn't always better. You want to make sure that the ingredients that are in there do have activity. And to answer the second question there, when we have multiple Actives that all have activity on those key diseases of concern, you're actually taking the selection pressure off of each individual Active. So you're not relying on just one Active that's doing most of the heavy lifting. When you spread that pressure out amongst two or more Actives, that is going to help delay resistance from those individual Actives.
Yeah, thanks for the insight there. So how does Revi Pro fit into responsible resistance management? Okay, hold on. How does Revi Pro fit into a responsible resistance management strategy then, considering all the things we've learned here today?
Yeah, absolutely. So Revi Pro, it definitely fits into a responsible resistance management strategy plan. So it was actually the first non group 11 containing pulse fungicide. Really. Once VSF discovered that group 11 resistance in anthracnose and just knowing the historic use of them, a decision was made to kind of move away from that to help protect help with resistance management and help protect future or continuing Actives. So we know that when you have group 11 resistance, it's cross resistant, so it doesn't really matter which group 11 you're using. So again, that was definitely part of the decision. But also continuing to have a group 11 in a product, even if you have or don't have resistance or have some, we know that even if you have other Actives in there that are maybe doing the heavy lifting, having a group 11 in there is going to help just continue to select for that resistance. So ReviPro contains two actives, two Group 3s. So BSF's newest fungicide innovation, Revisol and trusted prothylconazole. So it is two Group 3s, but we know that both of these Actives have activity on the key diseases of concern. So we're not left with just one Active doing all of the heavy lifting. Both the Revisol and Prothioconazole have activity on both those early season diseases and those later season diseases. So we're not just relying on one individual.
Considering all this. If somebody wants more information on Revi Pro here for the 2026 growing season.
Bethany where they go the best place would be reach out to our Ag Solutions line or their local BSF territory manager or their local retail Great stuff.
Thanks so much for joining us here today on Real Egg on the Weekend.
Thank you for having me.
We'll be back with more of Real Egg on the Weekend right after this quick break.
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It's not just like we got real like on the weekend happening here, but it's also a long weekend. Enjoy yourselves, have a great time and take part in some grilling. Fire it up. You know what? I was going to talk about some of our RealAgristudies data, but because it is a long weekend, because we're thinking protein and we're talking about grilling stuff, let's do a beef market update. Yes, with an Wasco, the Gateway Livestock Exchange.
Well, I am good. And that's exactly the correct lead off. This was a wild and woolly week. And to put it in a nutshell, cash cattle prices both in the US and Canada climbed that wall of worry. You know, whether early this week we were talking about Brazilian storeys on the front pages of the Wall Street Journal to in the last couple of days, of course, with Trump in China talking about Chinese licences for us packing plants. On again, off again and all the craziness that goes with it. But when you've got cash as solid as it is and fed cattle prices as tight as they are. We saw fed cattle in the US this week compared to last week. This is week over week, Shaun. In the south, we were 4 to $9 higher. That's $2.60 to $2.65 in the south. And in the north also $4 to $9 higher. $2.63 to $2.65 live, $4.05 to $410 dressed, that's 5 to 10 higher than last week. So just an amazing, amazing run to this cash market as it ignores. This is a reminder. Cash is king. Right.
And you mentioned China right now, Canada has the ability to ship China. The Americans do not. If that changes and we get confirmation that the US is back in business in China, does that take away from the Canadian opportunity or is there lots of room there?
Oh, I would suggest, Shaun, there's lots of room there. And that classic what floats one boat floats us all kind of scenario when you talk about North American beef production. So that, that storyline, and that's why we saw so much volatility in the futures this week. Anytime you start talking about a supply increase, that is Brazil or a supply decrease in North America, that is more exports to China, those are big supply pieces that have big implications or certainly from a price perspective, implications on the futures market. So that's why it's been so volatile. But the Chinese deal would be a, what I'll define as a bullish deal for North America for sure. And you know, before, before we carry on, I think I just wanted to finish on the strong markets. We've talked about the us but the same thing here again, talking about one boat floats them all. Fed cattle prices in Alberta this week were also substantially higher. We saw the cattle trade on a draught basis from 573 to 580 delivered. That's 8 to 13 bucks higher than last week. So mid-340s for some live trade F will be the feedlot. So just big, big money. Now, one thing that's still struggling and I keep looking at the calendar, so middle of May, this wholesale price, we really, you know, and it's got time. I'm not going to throw the, the baby out without the bounce water just yet, but 387.45 last night, that's only 50 cents higher than last week. And we're back to another one of those weeks where the select cutout was actually averaged higher, a buck and a half higher than the choice and why is that happening?
What are the fundamentals there?
It's saying, whoa, too much. You're looking at 90% of the youthful kill in the US now choice and higher choice and prime. And they're saying, well that's too much right now. And so that's how the market sends a signal back that kind of put a little bit more of the premium back into the slack cut out. So it's a signal of too much of one thing.
Well, and that static wholesale price, higher cash price, not helping the packer margins any.
No squeeze, squeeze as it is. And that's what we were expecting. The other thing that's happening, it really showed up in western Canadian or in Canadian data for that matter, is carcass weights here, steer carcass weights. I don't have last week's numbers but two weeks ago they dropped big time to £900 draught from 968 the week before. And that often happens at this time of year, Shaun, as we move from the, you know, the yearling fed cattle through the winter and spring into the calf feds. But this is a. Usually it's much more of a gradual as we get into June and the lightest carcass weights show up. This was a big drop in one week. But that also I look at as a very positive bullish point saying okay, the industry is getting cleaned up. We're very current on the front end. The yearlings are cleaned up. We're moving into more calves, they weigh less. That's going to be less tonnage overall to, to, to push through the system. So those are all positive things, but again, seasonal in nature, but they're happening.
You got March retail prices as well, right?
March retail. Just maybe before we leave the cattle thing, can we just talk about the two reports coming out later today? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Just because I'll forget if we don't hit it now. So later today we'll get. USDA is going to put out the May 1st cattle on feed report for the U.S. the guesstimates going into that report, a slight increase in on feed numbers, one and a half percent. They looked at April placements vers last year expecting a 4% increase and March marketings down 9. That's just showing you how much smaller the cal kill or so that's April. April marketing's down 9%. Just showing you how much smaller the kill's been here in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Canfax will also release their May 1 report. And of course last month's report for April 1 showed a big Increase in on feed numbers, just the big placements that continue to move into our yards in western Canada. So we're gonna, I expect to see a larger year over year increase in on feed numbers and placement numbers. So remember last year in April, lots of feeder cattle were heading south ahead of right around before and after the Liberation Day numbers. I think that's. Well, we're seeing it in the data. It's completely reversed itself. And we're back to feeder cattle imports and very few feeder cattle exports. So that'll fill up in the on feed report later today.
It is. I was in Wyoming earlier this week and although ranchers are having a successful financial turn like we've been talking about always on the beef market update, I'm not getting really drought driven. This drought in the western half of the US it is not leading to a lot of ambition related to supply expansion. It's just not possible.
No. And cattle tax has talked about that time and time again in terms of the US and where their drought is and where the US cow herd resides. And so when you've got a big chunk of the US cowherd in those dry and expected to be dry areas, I mean it really doesn't matter what the price is or what that profitability level is. I shouldn't say it doesn't matter. But a key main factor is grass supplies, water supply, you know, forage production. All of those pieces say, hey, I can't, I can't expand the herd. I'm struggling thinking about keeping the herd the same.
Yeah, I may have to disperse like that. That's, that is the, like some of the, some of that area never really even got much winter. We're getting our first snowfall here in May. Like it's, it's not good concerning for sure. Yeah, let's run the retail prices.
Yeah, we'll just finish up quick. So this is March retail data for Canada. Statscan data compared to a year ago. We'll stick with those numbers. So March 2026 for beef were up 18% from last year or sorry, that's year to date beef up 10% from March of last year. Pork up 11% from March of last year. That's just month compared to the same month last year. And chicken up 16%. So again we've seen that data as we watch the CPI numbers come in. You know, it's not just one product or the other. We're seeing all food products, lots of other inputs. Everything's up on. Especially since we've seen the conflict in
the Middle east that was Anne Wasco with the Gateway Livestock Exchange. Yeah. It's so much interest. Protein demand has been so strong. Thanks, everybody, for tuning in here to reelect on the weekend and we'll talk to you again next week.
Week.
Cheers, everybody.
It.
Facts Only
The Pests and Predators podcast is produced by Field Heroes and supported by the Western Grains Research Foundation.
Shaun Haney hosts RealAg on the Weekend, a show covering Canadian agriculture news.
Recent weather in Alberta and Saskatchewan included severe winds and power outages, with moisture excess in eastern Saskatchewan.
Matt Makins of Makins Weather predicts a delayed but significant warm-up across Western Canada, with potential record temperatures.
The winter of 2022-2023 was historically warm and dry in Western Canada and the U.S., leading to poor soil moisture and drought conditions.
The transition from La Niña to El Niño is rapid, with the current event likely to become strong or very strong, similar to 1997.
El Niño typically brings warmer winters, reduced snowpack, and drier conditions to the Canadian Prairies.
Fungicide resistance in pulse crops, particularly Group 11 resistance, is confirmed and widespread.
BASF’s Bethany Wyatt discusses resistance management strategies for pulse crops.
RealAgriculture.com offers newsletters, podcasts, and video content on agronomy and agricultural issues.
The Soybean School and Pulse School are educational resources available on RealAgriculture.com.
The article includes advertisements for Co-op’s crop protection products and MNP Ag Advisors.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The narrative presents a detailed account of weather patterns and agricultural challenges, with a focus on the transition to El Niño and its potential impacts. The strongest version of this narrative is its emphasis on the rapid shift to El Niño and the associated risks of drought and extreme weather, which are well-supported by Makins’ expertise and historical comparisons. However, the discussion also serves as a platform for promoting agricultural resources and products, which may introduce a subtle bias toward solutions offered by sponsors like BASF and Co-op.
Patterns detected: ARC-0024 Ambiguity (mixing weather analysis with promotional content), ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey (presenting weather insights as objective while embedding advertising).
The root cause of this narrative is the intersection of climate variability and agricultural vulnerability, framed within a media model that blends education with sponsorship. The implications for human agency are significant, as farmers must navigate both environmental challenges and market-driven solutions. The second-order consequences include potential over-reliance on corporate agronomic advice and the risk of overlooking systemic issues like climate change adaptation.
Bridge questions: How might the promotion of specific agricultural products influence the perceived urgency of climate-related risks? What alternative perspectives on drought resilience are missing from this discussion? Would the narrative change if it were purely educational rather than sponsored?
Counterstrike scan: If this were part of a coordinated influence campaign, the playbook would involve leveraging expert commentary to build credibility while subtly directing attention toward sponsored solutions. The actual content aligns partially with this pattern, as the weather analysis is credible but interspersed with promotions. However, the overall structure does not suggest a deliberate manipulation campaign, as the agricultural insights remain valuable standalone.
