This time, the background discussion focuses on China. If we set aside Beijing's claims that it does not seek to become a hegemon, the impression remains that China's goal is nonetheless to take a leading role through control of international norms and algorithms, writes Harri Tiido.
We have discussed China several times, but the country is vast, developments are interesting, and its past is long. As China scholars like to emphasize, this nation has 5,000 years of history and development behind it. More critical historians point out that the data for the first two millennia are too sparse to draw firm conclusions. And even during the remaining millennia, it was by no means a single unified people or state — there were internal wars, periods of foreign rule, and more.
Still, no one denies that the history and culture of the Chinese people are long and rich. It is also widely agreed that thinking about the past has a definite place and influence in present-day China.
Geopolitically, we are currently in a period when the United States' previous global influence — especially its so-called soft power — is in decline. At the same time, China is on the rise in many respects. Movement along this path has shifted from advantages driven primarily by economic development toward soft power, particularly in countries of the Global South.
In the West, including Europe, China is viewed with suspicion, though it is also seen as a counterweight to what is perceived as the United States' reckless policies. This is somewhat paradoxical, but economic relations with China may now appear to offer a more stable future than those with the U.S., given Washington's attitude toward its longstanding allies. In other words, China may currently be able to take advantage of the opportunities created by the United States' turbulent behavior on the international stage.
According to some observers, China is trying to enhance its image by using so-called moral realism, drawing on the ideas of the classical thinker Xunzi. Xunzi was among the first to provide perhaps the most thorough account of the ancient concept of Tianxia — "all under heaven." His work emerged during the Warring States period (475–221 BCE). We have referred to Tianxia before in these background pieces. It summarized the imperial Chinese worldview, in which the known world is centered on a single Son of Heaven.
Over the centuries, this center expanded from the royal core — the area directly governed by a single ruler and surrounding his palace — to the Chinese heartland. The surrounding regions were seen as fortifications protecting the center. Xunzi described in detail the requirements for building a unified empire under the rule of a single Son of Heaven. Like other thinkers of the Confucian tradition, Xunzi considered the ruler's highest duty to be the welfare of his subjects.
According to Xunzi, "Heaven did not create people for the benefit of the ruler; it created rulers for the benefit of the people." Yet Xunzi was also a realist. He understood that the task of unifying an empire was easier for a true ruler if his justice was backed by military force, though he was also convinced that relying solely on pressure and domination would not succeed in subjugating all under heaven. In other words, it is a combination of moral and military power — and this can likely also be observed in China's current leadership.
It may seem strange to discuss such things in the context of today's communist regime, but in China, power has almost always been shaped by historically developed patterns of thought that have been passed down through the centuries. From a realist perspective, in a world order based on nation-states, a certain hierarchy appears inevitable.
Modern Chinese authorities have not openly expressed a desire to rule the world. Rather, they speak of a global community with a shared future, in which China positions itself as a reliable and just partner — especially in contrast to recent U.S. behavior.
According to one Chinese thinker, a world leading to lasting peace can emerge only if China rises as a superpower grounded in humane authority.
So far, China's rise has largely been based on economic growth, but that growth is slowing. As prosperity has increased, China has also lost some of its advantages as a source of cheap labor. Much low-cost manufacturing has moved to other countries, and China is also facing demographic challenges — namely, a shrinking workforce due to low birth rates. As a result, Beijing has shifted toward achieving technological leadership. Technology, especially in the digital sphere, is in fact one manifestation of China's soft power.
China's so-called Digital Silk Road project is one of the main forms of that manifestation. It should be noted, however, that this digital road also appears to involve, among other things, the development of digital surveillance systems, data governance, and the shaping of artificial intelligence standards in a China-centric way.
Drawing on the legacy of past thinkers, China is developing new global norms based on harmony, stability, and collective development — at least in rhetoric. This model is presented as a response to Western norms, which are based on individualism, freedom of expression, and unrestricted competition.
Looking ahead, a new world order in the Chinese style seems to be based on a different understanding of the modern era than that of the West. The Chinese model draws on traditional definitions of military-political power and seeks to create an alternative world order through artificial intelligence, quantum computing, genetic engineering, and space technologies.
If we set aside Beijing's claims that it does not seek to become a hegemon, the impression remains that China's goal is to achieve a leading role through control of international norms and algorithms. This has been described as a paradigmatic shift that fundamentally alters existing definitions of power.
One distinctive feature of China is that it is never entirely clear what its leadership is planning. Militarily, China so far appears to be focused only on asserting control over its immediate surroundings, but this may be due to a lack of capabilities to project power further afield. Judging by current military development plans, China's ambitions could be significantly greater in less than a decade. While the United States is dismantling the existing world order, China is preparing to take on a larger role in a new one.
All of this could be influenced by China's internal development. President Xi Jinping's efforts to purge potential rivals and consolidate his personal power may at some point lead to unexpected outcomes. A sole leader might come to believe that he truly is the only Son of Heaven under the sky.
Further reading
- Xunzi and the Legalist Legacy: The Untold Story of China's Philosophical Architect – Ancient War History
- China's Identity through a Historical Lens
- Unraveling China's Grand Strategy: Its Aim is to Erode U.S. Global Hegemony, Not Seek World Domination - The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy - l'Institut pour la paix et la diplomatie
- China's Global Hegemony Strategy
- China's ancient statecraft and the future of global order: Does China pursue hegemony or harmony?
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Editor: Kaupo Meiel, Argo Ideon
Facts Only
Harri Tiido discusses China’s geopolitical strategy and historical influences.
China has a 5,000-year history, though early records are sparse and the region experienced fragmentation.
The U.S. is seen as declining in soft power, while China is rising, particularly in the Global South.
China is viewed in the West as both a suspect actor and a counterweight to U.S. policies.
The concept of *Tianxia* ("all under heaven") originates from the Warring States period (475–221 BCE) and was elaborated by the thinker Xunzi.
Xunzi argued that rulers exist to serve the people but also recognized the need for military power alongside moral authority.
Modern China promotes a "global community with a shared future" and contrasts its approach with U.S. behavior.
China’s economic growth is slowing due to rising labor costs and demographic decline.
China is shifting focus toward technological leadership, including AI, quantum computing, and the Digital Silk Road.
The Digital Silk Road involves digital surveillance, data governance, and AI standards aligned with Chinese interests.
China’s military ambitions may expand beyond regional control within a decade.
President Xi Jinping’s centralization of power could lead to unpredictable outcomes.
Executive Summary
Full Take
This analysis presents China’s rise as a strategic blend of historical philosophy and modern power projection, but several patterns warrant scrutiny. The framing of China’s *Tianxia*-inspired "moral realism" as a benign alternative to Western individualism risks a false binary (ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey), where the motive is softened by cultural appeal while the underlying power dynamics remain unchanged. The emphasis on China’s 5,000-year history, though factually debated, serves as an authority game (ARC-0012 Appeal to Tradition), lending weight to its contemporary ambitions without addressing discontinuities in governance or ideology.
The narrative also leans on ambiguity (ARC-0024 Ambiguity) regarding China’s true intentions—acknowledging its denial of hegemonic aspirations while suggesting its actions imply otherwise. This tension mirrors classic realist thought, where moral rhetoric masks power consolidation. The Digital Silk Road’s dual role as both developmental aid and surveillance infrastructure exemplifies this duality, raising questions about whether China’s "harmony" model is genuinely distinct from Western liberalism or merely a rebranding of authoritarian control.
Root cause: The paradigm assumes that China’s historical thought patterns inevitably shape its modern behavior, potentially overstating continuity while underplaying the Communist Party’s ideological adaptations. The unstated assumption is that soft power and technological dominance are neutral tools, ignoring their use in suppressing dissent or reshaping global governance in illiberal ways.
Implications: If China’s model prevails, human agency could be constrained by state-defined "collective development," prioritizing stability over individual rights. The Global South may gain infrastructure but lose sovereignty over data and norms. Second-order effects include accelerated U.S.-China decoupling and a bifurcated internet governed by competing standards.
Bridge questions: How would China’s *Tianxia* framework accommodate dissent within its "shared future"? What evidence would falsify the claim that China seeks normative dominance rather than territorial expansion? Are there historical precedents where moral realism led to lasting peace, or does it invariably serve expansionist ends?
Counterstrike scan: A coordinated influence campaign would amplify China’s cultural legitimacy while downplaying its surveillance exports, using historical narratives to sanitize modern ambitions. This piece stops short of outright propaganda but aligns with a pattern of framing China’s rise as inevitable and morally superior—a tactic used in information operations to normalize authoritarian models. However, the inclusion of critical perspectives (e.g., demographic challenges, Xi’s risks) mitigates this, suggesting no direct alignment with a malicious playbook.
Patterns detected: ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey, ARC-0012 Appeal to Tradition, ARC-0024 Ambiguity
Sentinel — Likely Synthetic
The text demonstrates a high degree of structural fluency and pattern recognition, characteristic of advanced AI synthesis, skillfully weaving historical and geopolitical threads into a cohesive narrative.